Oct 31
Moronski predicts
Here is a timeline guide for what to watch for when the polls start closing on Tuesday. The first polls close at 6:00 EST (yes, Daylight Savings Time will be over).It’s important to note that 15 states are in more than one time zone (including Florida), most of which have staggered as opposed to synchronized closing times.
6:00 EST
Indiana and Kentucky Eastern Time Zone polls close. If either of these states are in question for too long, head to Blockbuster because it will be a short night for Bush. The Indiana Governor’s race is the most interesting contest here. Some pundits think the Kentucky US Senate race is close, but it more likely wishful thinking on the D side of the aisle.
7:00 EST
Indiana and Kentucky close completely, as do Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. Potentially close races include the South Carolina US Senate race and the Vermont Governor’s race.
New Hampshire – a swing state with a hot governor’s contest—allows it’s 13 “cities” to keep the polls open until 8:00 EST while the rest of the state closes now. This was expected to be the Bush state to most likely switch to Kerry.
Florida’s Eastern time zone polls are closed. For those of you who may not be aware, 10 northwestern counties are located in the Central time zone and close at 7:00 CST or 8:00 EST. When the networks initially called Florida for Gore in 2000, the Central time zone polls were still open. Political pundits on both sides of the aisle state that Bush probably lost several thousand votes in this conservative region. You may hear that the number of votes is small, but there are over 500,000 voters in the Florida Central time zone. Considering the margin in 2000, this is huge. In addition to the presidential race, there is a very hot US Senate race here.
7:30 EST
Ohio and West Virginia close. The mother of all swing states is self-explanatory. Most of North Carolina closes, BUT County Boards of Elections have the option to stay open until 8:30 depending on circumstances. While Bushshouldwin North Carolina, the US Senate race is tight and there is a Governor’s race the Dems should win.
8:00 EST
The most states close at this time. More than half of the electoral college has the polls closed. Among the big ones include Michigan (except for part of Upper Peninsula), Pennsylvania, Florida (ALL OF IT),Missouri, and New Jersey.
8:30 EST
Arkansas and North Carolina are closed.
9:00 EST
Everything east of the Mississippi River closes. States to watch include Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado, and New Mexico. Will Colorado be dumb enough to vote itself into electoral irrelevance by apportioning its electoral vote based on the popular vote as opposed to winner take all? The big questions in New York are: will Sen. Chuck Schumer’s margin of victory be greater than his invisible Republican and Conservative party opponent’s vote totals combined? AND who will finish second, the invisible Republican or invisible Conservative? (and does it matter?)
10:00 EST
We could have a winner… wishful thinking more likely. Iowa and Nevada are the states to watch here.
11:00 EST
Hawaii (swing state???), Oregonand Washington. Although Kerry will likely win it, Washington has an interesting governor race. The only question about California is how many minutes after 11:00 will the networks call it for Kerry… I say 7 +/- one minute.
MIDNIGHT - It’s not today, it’s tomorrow
If you’re still up—as I will be—you are a junkie. I’m sure the several swing states and tight races will still be chasing down ballots. For the hardcore, watch the Alaska US Senate race featuring a former Governor and the daughter of the current Governor who was appointed to the seat. This one is so close they may be hunting down absentees up near the Arctic Circle or out in the Aleutians.
That’s a what to look for on Tuesday night. Keep the coffee pot steaming and your red and blue crayons handy. Victory laps and/or mea culpas will appear after the election.
