The election…14 days out
The latest batch of political punditry from my fave former-YR Sean Moronski.
A little perspective on the big election in two weeks. Forget the horserace national polls… now it’s all about the state-to-state strategy.Comments are off for this postBush can be reasonably sure of 213 electoral votes… I would include Colorado’nine electoral votesbut the presence of Referendum 36, which would allocate electoral votes based on popular vote percentage, clouds the situation. More on that later.
Kerry has 210 electoral votes solid… but I have not included one uncertain electoral vote in Maine. Oh, the nuances of our electoral system…
There are 115 electoral votes still uncertain, 52 that were won by the Rs in 2000 and 54 by the Ds. They are as follows…
Pennsylvania (21). Really three states… Philly and its suburbs, the Pittsburgh area, and the rest of the state (“Pennsyltucky?”). If Kerry loses here, call it a night.
Ohio (20). You would think our candidates were running for Governor of Ohio the way they have parked it there. No GOPer has ever won the WhiteHouse without Ohio.
The Upper Midwest. Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10) and Iowa (7)... all Dem states since at least 1984 (Minnesota since 1972). Political and demographic changes have placed all of these in play. The “Iron Triangle” must hold for the Dems to win.
Florida (27). The eye of the political hurricane four years ago now struggles with uncertainty as it recovers from four real ones. Also the site of a hot Senate race (more on that next time).
New Mexico (5). Numerically the closest state in 2000, as Gore won by fewer than 400 votes. Any Nader votes may tip this increasingly Hispanic state in favor of the Rs.
Nevada (5). Two issues… the approval of Yucca Mountain as an underground nuclear waste storage facility and the massive influx of new residents. Eighty percent of Las Vegas residents have moved there in the last 15 years.
Maine’s northern congressional district (1). Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral votes differently than most, giving two to the statewide winner and one for each congressional district won by the candidate. The statewide polls are close enough to conclude that Bush has a shot at winning this northern district and at least one vote. Given his previous margin was two votes, this is no small feat.
The Colorado situation needs explaining… Referendum 36, if passed, would require the state allocate its nine electoral votes based on the popular vote percentage. Given the likelihood that even on a bad day, the losing candidate would likely only suffer a 15 point defeat, the states votes would almost always be allocated 5-4. This would make Colorado an electorally irrelevant state given the winning candidate would net one vote.
If Ref 36 passes, the new allocation would be effective this year… if form holds and the Rs and D’s win the uncertain races they won in 2000, the vote count would be 265 R to 264 D… a Bush win with Ref 36 winning gives him 270, but a Kerry win ties it at 269, sending it to Congress… it could all come down to this…
More on the hot Senate races tomorrow… predictions this time next week…
Return To Sender
Trying to turn the world around
Trying to turn the world around
Ive come to turn your world around.
— midnight oil
You might have heard of a British newspaper’s attempt to influence the U.S. election, by handing out addresses of Clark County, Ohio voters and encouraging its readers to write to beg them not to vote for President Bush.
Grateful Americans have bombarded the Guardian with thank you notes, such as this:
My dear, beloved Brits,
I understand the Guardian is sponsoring a service where British citizens write to Americans to advise them on how to vote. Thank heavens! I was adrift in a sea of confusion and you are my beacon of hope!Feel free to respond to this email with your advice. Please keep in mind that I am something of an anglophile, so this is not confrontational. Please remember, too, that I am merely an American. That means I am not very bright. It means I have no culture or sense of history. It also means that I am barely literate, so please don’t use big, fancy words.
Set me straight, folks!
Dayton, Ohio
Er, I think he was being a bit sarcastic. Well, there’s plenty more here, though I should say that a lot of them are unprintable.
Then again, the Guardian did print them, so I guess they are printable after all.
Sort of a conundrum.
This whole effort was spearheaded by Aussie blogger Tim Blair, and you can get up to speed on it here.
Tim has gone on to other good works, such as mocking these fools:
Go and read. (Make sure beverages are not within spewing distance of computer.)
Update: Steyn has gone after the Guardians despicable behaviour like a Dobbie in a bad mood.
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